The Traveler

Democrats will claim victory after stimulus

I've wondered how the current administration was going to claim victory for the stimulus package. It's always seemed clear to me that it would not save nearly as many millions of jobs as they claim, but they certainly won't claim defeat.

So, what will they say? How will they claim victory (just as did FDR) and ensure re-election?

I think I've figured it out. Now, this is purely predictive. Please don't spam the online comments saying Obama won't do this. This is a guess, but you wait to see if I'm right.

The current claim is that it will create or save 3.5 million jobs over the next two years. Today, I heard that they would assess that by the current baseline.

That means: in January (the first full month prior to the stimulus package) there were 598,000 lost jobs. At that rate, over the next two years, more than 14 million jobs would be lost. That puts us at 18 percent unemployment. Taking into account base growth, we have about 14 percent.

But no one really thinks it will get that bad. And if it only gets up to 12 percent, behold … 3 million jobs. That's with no stimulus package whatsoever.

There, of course, is also the fact that it is very unlikely that we will continue to lose 598,000 every month. In fact, the graph is normally very, very front heavy. Using current monthly figures (even an average of the last six months) as a flat baseline for the next two years is just bad economics - bad math.

When 2010 elections roll around, the Democratic Party will claim the stimulus was a victory. The Republican Party will claim the stimulus was a failure.

And we libertarians will continue to pray that the government will begin to believe in the American people again.

Justin Carrell
2001 UA alumnus
Fort Worth, Tex.

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